🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.